RANDALL WHITE, IN THE GLOBAL VILLAGE TODAY. TORONTO. FEBRUARY 18, 2025. Justin Trudeau’s Canada has been one of the strongest supporters of an independent Ukraine extant — morally (so to speak), rhetorically, symbolically, and in some degree financially (if not exactly or quite militarily).

Part of this flows from Canada’s status as what The Guardian in the UK has called the “world’s second largest Ukrainian diaspora.” (And note especially, eg, Justin Trudeau’s former minister of finance and deputy prime minister, and current Liberal leadership candidate, “Chrystia Freeland, who grew up in a tight-knit rural Ukrainian community” in Alberta.)

Yet another more narrowly political reality also contributes to Canada’s strong support for Ukrainian independence, especially after the Russian invasion that began on February 24, 2022 — and the resulting “war” that Trump and Putin may or may not be trying to resolve, in some unlikely way that will mostly benefit Russia.

As clarified by Trump’s latest ranting about the 51st state (due north of the USA), his view of Canada has a lot in common with Putin’s view of Ukraine. (Or Putin’s view of Ukraine has a lot in common with Trump’s view of Canada!)

(a) Trump inadvertently draws on the depths of American political culture

Both men see the adjacent smaller country (well, in population in Canada’s case at least) as some kind of inherent or otherwise logical part of the genial but far from gentle giant next door. Both men have 21st century imperial ambitions, for themselves and the countries they claim to personify.

In the case of Trump’s America there is a long history of seeing Canada as in truth just another unacknowledged part of the USA — especially on the right-conservative (as opposed to left-progressive) side of US politics.

Trump may be bringing something closer to the end of Democracy in America than any US presidential figure before (leaving Jefferson Davis aside). But in his ultimate attitude to Canada — as in so much else — he is inadvertently drawing on the depths of American political culture.

The relevant history includes the War of 1812–1814 in North America — the modern American Republic’s last great attempt to invade Canada. The Canada that was not successfully invaded then (thanks to the seasoned troops of the British empire, and their North American native allies under Chief Tecumseh, a successor to Chief Pontiac) went on to become the early Canadian confederation under the Constitution Act, 1867 … and then finally the present-day altogether independent “free and democratic society” of Canada under the Constitution Act, 1982 (with its Charter of Rights and Freedoms).

(b) Aisha Ahmad’s “Why annexing Canada would destroy the United States”

What would happen if Donald Trump went completely off his rocker and ordered the Pentagon to invade Canada today, in the 2020s?

Stephen Marche had an initial run at this complex subject in the issue of Maclean’s dated January 9, 2025 : “Why America Can’t Conquer Canada … Donald Trump’s nonsensical threats are an attempt to distract from his own country’s self-destruction.”

More recently, Aisha Ahmad’s “Why annexing Canada would destroy the United States,” published February 11, 2025 on THE CONVERSATION website, offers the most brilliant and realistic discussion of the issue I have seen so far. Suitably enough, Ms Ahmad, an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto, is “a multiple award-winning International Security scholar specializing in international interventions, insurgencies, and complex civil wars.”

Her BA, MA, and PhD degrees from the University of Toronto and McGill University in Montreal give her just the right additional background to discuss any potential US attempt to annex Canada in the present day and age! And of course she wisely concludes it just can’t happen, for a host of reasons now deeply embedded in the history of North America from the late 18th century to the present late (?maybe mid? ?certainly snowy?) winter of 2025.

(c) Trumpian 51st state nonsense in early 2025 still ultimately good for future of independent sovereign UN member state of Canada

Finally, I have recently stumbled across three other articles vaguely related to the same broad subject :

(1) Bill Scher’s piece in the February 6, 2025 Washington Monthly : “Trump’s Imperialism Puts Americans Last … If you ever suggested Donald Trump is an isolationist (and I have), you have been shown the error of your ways. Trump is not an isolationist. He is an imperialist … He began his second term announcing bizarre plans for territorial expansion: demanding a return of the Panama Canal, pining for Canada to be the 51st state, and gunning for Greenland … Reaching new levels of absurdity, Trump now lays claim to Gaza.”

(2) For more on the link between Trump on Canada and Putin on the Ukraine see Jim Harding, “Opinion: Canada can be seen as Trump’s Ukraine in new imperial era … The contradictory response of Canada’s premiers shows our vulnerability as Trump poses a real threat to Canadian independence,” in the Saskatoon StarPhoenix for January 21, 2025.

(3) As a final sobering reminder to all Canadians about the ultimate climate of opinion in the wider North America note Lawrence Martin on “A message from the Americans: Quite frankly Canada, we don’t give a damn” in the Globe and Mail, January 29, 2025.

Yet … all this crazed Trumpian rhetoric about the 51st American state in early 2025 still, more than ever, strikes me as ultimately quite good for the future of the independent sovereign UN member state of Canada.

Professor Aisha Ahmad’s excellent new “Why annexing Canada would destroy the United States” is just one of many growing cases in point … The Donald II in all his anti-Canadian craziness is finally just forcing us to accept our own more modest but definitely equally manifest (and altogether independent) northern destiny … out loud and in public …at last …

RANDALL WHITE, ONTARIO TONITE, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. TUESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2025. As explained by Queen’s Park reporter Laura Stone this past Friday, “Ontario Premier Doug Ford confirms early election — ‘We will be calling the election next Wednesday … We need a mandate from the people to fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs…we will not back down,’ he tells reporters.”

As independent Ottawa reporter Dale Smith (among many others) has observed : “He doesn’t need a mandate. He already has one … He’s trying to use Trump to make you forget about his corruption and mismanagement.”

As my favourite local TV has somewhat similarly pointed out, more than once, Premier Ford’s Ontario PC Party currently has, in the wake of the June 2, 2022 record low voter turnout Ontario election, 79 seats in a 124-member Legislative Assembly of Ontario — where 63 seats would be a bare majority.

What’s more, the next legislated fixed-date Ontario election is not until June 2026 — some four years after the last fixed-date election on June 2, 2022. The Ford government — elected in 2022 by less than 41% of the record low 44% of voters who turned out — currently has a 16-seat majority in the legislature. It can get whatever fresh legislation it likes in any fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs, or anything else. So why go to the considerable expense of a fresh “snap election” that is unlikely to give the provincial Government of Ontario much more of a mandate from the people (in seats in the legislature at least) than it has right now?

(1) Doug Ford’s smart political argument makes no sense legally or constitutionally

To answer this question we must go beneath the superficial surface of democracy in Canada 2025. For an assortment of reasons (including what Dale Smith calls “his corruption and mismanagement”) Premier Ford has wisely enough concluded that his Ontario PC party is more likely to win an election held now — or more exactly some four weeks hence, on February 27, 2025 — than at any subsequent time between now and the June 2026 fixed election date.

In a more rigorous and sensible version of our Canadian (and Ontario etc) parliamentary democracy than the one we have right now, the Lieutenant Governor from whom Premier Ford formally requested a dissolution of parliament and a fresh election (the Honourable Edith Dumont) might in this case have raised some very sensible objections.

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RANDALL WHITE, NORTH AMERICAN NOTEBOOK, TORONTO . SATURDAY, JANUARY 18, 2025. So far the height of the Canadian mainstream media response to Donald Trump’s latest absurd remarks on the Canadian future must be this past Saturday, January 11, 2025 op-ed in the Globe and Mail by Jean Chrétien, 20th prime minister of Canada, 1993–2003. (And a Canadian also celebrating his 91st birthday on January 11, 2025.)

The final “full letter” (to the Globe as it were, or even to all Canadians as readers of what at least used to call itself Canada’s National Newspaper) was soon enough made available online, even to those among us who do not subscribe to the Globe and Mail.

This full letter is a rather long piece by former PM Chrétien (1095 words on my count). Yet as one might expect it is equally a collection of somewhat folksy but pithy wise remarks on assorted subjects related to the future of Canada (and the United States next door of course).

On the over-arching main subject M. Chrétien just says, early on : “Of course, it’s about the totally unacceptable insults and unprecedented threats to our sovereignty from Donald Trump.”

(1) Some progress on two very clear and simple messages

The former (Liberal) Canadian tough-guy prime minister — “Le petit gars de Shawinigan” — went on : “I have two very clear and simple messages … To Donald Trump, from one old man to another: Wake up! What makes you think that Canadians would ever give up the greatest country in the world? And make no mistake, that’s what we are.”

Somewhat further along Jean Chrétien turned to : ”We built a nation on the most rugged and difficult terrain imaginable, and we did it against all odds. We may seem easygoing and gentle, but make no mistake: we are determined and tough … And that brings me to my second message—to all our leaders, federal and provincial, and to those who aspire to lead our country: Start showing that determination and tenacity.”

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GREG BARNS SC. HOBART, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, PERTH, AUSTRALIA. MONDAY, JANUARY 13, 2025. Not for the first time the political landscapes in Australia and Canada are worthy of comparison. This year both nations are holding elections and the opposition parties, the Conservatives in Canada and the Liberals in Australia, are led by right wing populists. The incumbent centre left governments in both nations are under siege, albeit the Australian Labor Party (ALP) led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has only been in office 3 years, unlike the Liberals in Canada who have been in power since the autumn of 2015 and last week lost their leader Justin Trudeau.

Another point of difference is that the polls in Canada show that the Conservative’s Pierre Poilievre is likely to win in a landslide ; his counterpart in Australia Peter Dutton would, at best, form a minority government.

When I refer to this not being the first time a neat comparison can be made between the political landscape of both nations, I refer to the political strategy used by the Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper two decades ago which was a carbon copy of that used with devastating effect by Australia’s John Howard. Mr Howard, Prime Minister from 1996 to 2007, ran a divisive strategy of appealing to ‘ordinary Australians’ or ‘battlers’ as he called them, as opposed to liberal ‘elites’. To Canadian readers this language will sound familiar given it was adopted by Mr Harper when he was Prime Minister from 2006 to 2015.

Plus ca change. Mr Dutton, last weekend, set out his stall and outlined his ‘vision’ for Australia. It was peppered with references to attacking ‘wokeness’, a homage to his working class upbringing (he was a police officer before entering politics) and therefore his capacity to identify with Australians who are struggling to make ends meet because of the rise in the cost of living in the post covid world and migration.

There is also a Trumpian note in the Dutton rhetoric given the Liberal’s traditional alliance with big business. As David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy at the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, wrote last year, “Dutton’s declaration earlier this year that the Liberal Party is “not the party of big business” but “the friend of the worker” marks a notable rhetorical shift, even if there is reason to doubt the substance behind it.”

One would be forgiven for thinking that Mr Dutton’s advisers are cutting and pasting Mr Poilievre’s strategy, or vice versa on this issue. Ginny Roth, a Conservative strategist wrote recently that Mr Poilievre’s “overall tone he has adopted towards big business” is hostile. “Rather, he claimed that if he becomes prime minister his “daily obsession” will be to advance the interests of the “working-class” people of this country”, Roth observed.

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ASHOK CHARLES. THUNDER BAY, TORONTO, SATURDAY, JANUARY 4, 2025. I am the Executive Director of Republic Now — a non-partisan organization launched in 2013, to press for the replacement of the British monarch, as Canada’s head of state, by a democratically selected Canadian.

Early this year we were heartened by New Brunswick MP René Arseneault’s private member’s bill, which would have made the 1867 constitutional requirement for newly elected Members of Parliament to swear an oath of allegiance to King Charles III optional.

Mr. Arseneault’s Bill C-347 proposed that Members of Parliament and Senators be able to pledge to carry out their duties “in the best interest of Canada while upholding its constitution” rather than, or in addition to, taking the (medieval and colonial) oath of monarchical fealty.

Months before this past April, when the bill was debated and voted on in the House of Commons, Republic Now sent a message to every MP and Senator urging them to support it.

Our message referenced a 2023 Abacus Data poll which revealed that “2 in 3 Canadians would vote to eliminate the monarchy in Canada,” and that only 18% view King Charles positively, while 33% hold a negative view.

As such, we argued, a commitment of conscientious public service in the MP’s oath of office would be greatly preferable to an oath of fealty to a king that the majority of Canadians do not want as their head of state in the 21st century.

Unfortunately, Bill C-347 was defeated, 197 to 113. Collectively, our elected representatives insisted that a monarchical oath of fealty, dating from the 16th century, is preferable to a pledge of service to Canada, and a commitment to uphold our constitution.

The 2023 Abacus Data poll, referenced in our initial message to parliamentarians, probed public sentiment in regards to the monarchy and King Charles, and did not specifically address the parliamentary oath of office. After the defeat of Bill C-347 Republic Now commissioned a new poll, from the same firm, which did cover the oath.

Completed in October 2024, this survey suggests that a resounding majority of Canadians want their elected representatives to pledge allegiance to Canada rather than Charles Windsor across the sea.

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COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS. GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2024. Susan B. Glasser in The New Yorker nicely summarized one key but strange political event of 2024 in the USA :

“The Weird New Normal of Donald Trump in 2024 … Radical revisionism is a strong contender for the theme of this disruptive year, in which some unique property of political alchemy managed to transform a defeated and disgraced ex-President into a perfectly electable Republican candidate.”

For our part here we are just providing links to our top 10 counterweights stories from the year now ending, in chronological order. And we are relying on the titles of our top 10 pieces to suggest what they were (and still are) all about :

(1) Is the “free and democratic society” riding on the outcome of more than 60 elections around the global village in 2024? … Jan 5th, 2024.

(2) Who is supposed to be running the Government of Canada — the federal government elected by the Canadian people or 10 provincial premiers ?? … Mar 14th, 2024

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RANDALL WHITE, ONTARIO TONITE, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2024. Before setting all such things aside for extended New Year’s celebrations, I had just wanted to say a few quick words about recent statistics that suggest “Canadians sense of pride plummets to lowest level in decades.”

(And this was happening for some time before the latest insults of the second US president elect, who as one of his several secret talents probably does almost viscerally sense such things, like blood in the water).

The statistics involved have been tidily summarized in a recent blogTO piece, which concluded with “What are your thoughts on the decline in Canadian pride?

But … suddenly … yesterday Canadian federal politics was almost overwhelmed by the altogether unexpected resignation of finance minister (and deputy PM) Chrystia Freeland, on the very day she was to have introduced the 2024 Fall Economic Statement in the House.

(1) Resignation of Justin Trudeau ????

I certainly agree that this Monday, Monday’s events raise the question of PM Justin Trudeau’s future in a very immediate way.

Note, eg, these headlines from the CBC News website : “Trudeau’s government in crisis” ; “Freeland — the minister with the mile-wide mandate — leaves a massive hole in cabinet” ; “Trudeau faces frustrated MPs after Freeland’s shock resignation” ; “Trudeau government in turmoil after Freeland resignation” ; “Freeland’s unexpected departure sparks reactions from all sides” ; “Freeland’s departure an indictment of Trudeau’s treatment of women, former MP says.”

And then the CTV News headlines just carried on with the story : “Trudeau considering his options as leader after Freeland quits cabinet, sources say” ; “’We’re not united’: Liberal caucus meets, as PM Trudeau faces fresh calls to resign in light of Freeland’s departure” ; “’Eventful day,’ Trudeau says after Chrystia Freeland quits cabinet, LeBlanc tapped to replace her” ; “Feds deliver fall economic statement with $61.9B deficit for 2023-24, amid political turmoil” ; “Ford says premiers must stand united against Trump tariff threat amid ‘uncertain’ times in Ottawa” ; “Is Chrystia Freeland readying a Liberal leadership bid?”

All this has done at least two things for my own immediate view of Canadian federal politics. First, I think it’s much less likely that the Trudeau Liberal minority government will now make it all the way to the October 2025 fixed-date election. We could be voting much earlier in the new year. Second, I also now think there’s a considerably greater chance that Justin Trudeau will not be leading the Liberals in the next election, whenever it comes. (And, somewhat ironically, if a new federal Liberal leader must be chosen, logistically that just might bring the next election closer to October 2025 as well.

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RANDALL WHITE, NORTH AMERICAN NOTEBOOK, TORONTO . THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2024. According to Wkipedia : “The Ugly American is a 1958 political novel by Eugene Burdick and William Lederer that depicts the failures of the US diplomatic corps in Southeast Asia.” It ”has remained continuously in print and is one of the most influential American political novels.”

For many and probably most of us who live in the most northern part of North America, President-elect Donald Trump’s recent joke or otherwise to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that, to avoid palpably insane US tariffs, “Canada could become the 51st state” of the Union marked the re-appearance of the Ugly American species in the US capital (er, well, Mar-a-Lago at least).

This past Monday, eg, a young lady from the United States called Tara Bull raised the question “Would you support Canada becoming the 51st US State?” on X (Twitter). On Tuesday “Made In Canada” (from Canada of course) replied : “I will speak for every Canadian, NO!”

Just today (at 8 this morning) the Angus Reid Institute posted the results of a very quick poll of some 3,000 Canadians. All told, when asked “how do you believe the Canadian government should approach Trump’s threat of tariffs,” 49% answered “Play hardball — even if the tariffs come, Canada shouldn’t let itself be bullied.” Another 33% said “Try to negotiate with Trump for a lower tariff.” And then 10% were prepared to “Concede and do whatever the US demands to avoid the tariff.” (While 9% answered “Not sure/Can’t say.”)

“Donald Trump is not raising some new Ugly American principle here”

The Angus Reid poll also revealed some striking differences in Canadian attitudes among those with a different “Federal Vote Intention” in the next Canadian election. Among Conservative party voters only 32% answered “Play hardball … Canada shouldn’t let itself be bullied.” But among Liberals this play-hardball number rose to 63%, and among New Democrats it moved up one point more to 64%. (Even among Bloc Québécois voters hardball players stood at 55%.)

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RANDALL WHITE, CANADA’S CAPITAL FROM 4 ½ HOURS WEST. FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2024. [UPDATED NOVEMBER 30, DECEMBER 3 : See below]. Even a close observer cannot see much of the Canadian House of Commons from the capital city of Ontario (which like both the province and the country at large boasts an Indigenous North American name).

At the same time, you can read what people who in one way or another watch the Parliament of Canada for a living write. If you have great patience you can also watch both the elected House and unelected Senate of Canada on TV, via the Cable Public Affairs Channel (CPAC) or online at cpac.ca (or still more recently at Parliament’s own ParlVU).

I often enough have patience for the former — the latter only once in a while. Having lately spent a half hour watching the House on TV I have been reminded as well why I seldom follow this at best lame public entertainment — and unrivaled bad political joke at worst.

Most recently, in Canada’s federal parliamentary democracy, headquartered in semi-cosmopolitan Ottawa (once a mere “last lumber village before the North Pole”), the bad joke has become the new normal. Consider these recent headlines :

“Parliament ‘ground to a halt’ over Conservative allegations of Liberal corruption.” Laura Osman and Alessia Passafiume, The Canadian Press. October 3, 2024.

“Why has Parliament’s work been paralyzed for more than a week? Standoff over documents related to failed clean tech fund has brought normal business to a halt.” John Paul Tasker CBC News. October 9, 2024.

“No clear end in sight as House of Commons gridlock approaches 2-month mark. MPs have been debating a privilege motion since late September, putting other House business on hold.” Darren Major, CBC News. November 19, 2024.

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RANDALL WHITE, ONTARIO TONITE, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. MONDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2024. Before leaving Remembrance Day 2024 altogether I want to underline one heretofore unique event on the theme this year in Canada’s most populous province.

On Thursday, November 7, 2024 Sol Mamakwa, Member of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario for the also somewhat unique far northwestern electoral district of Kiiwetinoong, rose in the Assembly to commemorate “Indigenous Veterans Day [November 8]. To all Indigenous veterans, and those currently serving, thank you for your contributions and sacrifice.”

When posting a video clip of his commemoration the next day (the actual Indigenous Veterans Day) Mr. Mamakwa explained : “Yesterday I spoke to honour Indigenous veterans in Kiiwetinoong and in other places … Meegwetch for watching.”

Sol Mamakwa himself is “a member of the Kingfisher Lake First Nation and speaks Oji-Cree as a first language.” He is as well a member of the Ontario New Democratic Party.

His short bio on Wikipedia further explains that he was “one of three MPPs of Indigenous heritage elected in 2018, alongside ONDP colleagues Suze Morrison and Guy Bourgouin.”

Mr. Mamakwa was similarly “the second person of full First Nations descent elected to the assembly after Peter North in 1990.” On May 28, 2024, he “became the first person to give a speech in an Indigenous language in the Ontario Legislature.” And : “As of August 11, 2024, he serves as the Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and critic for Indigenous and Treaty Relations as well as for Northern Development.”

It may be still more intriguing that Sol Mamakwa sits for a riding in the somewhat mysterious far north of Ontario, where there are no highways or railways and life has in some respects more in common with Northern Ontario 400 years ago than with Southern Ontario today.

The riding (electoral district) of Kiiwetinoong for which Mr. Mamakwa sits was created by the Kathleen Wynne Liberal government in 2017, to give the province at least one present-day political division where “two-thirds of residents are Indigenous.”

In the midst of the many crazy sides of Doug Ford’s right-wing conservative Government of Ontario today — complete with incessantly applauding trained seals in the Legislative Assembly — Sol Mamakwa often enough lends some high-minded distinction to Ontario politics.

And now that includes the modern patriotic commemorations surrounding Remembrance Day in Canada, its diverse First Nations and Indigenous geography, its most populous province of Ontario, and the full breadth of modern Ontario’s vast geography, all the way to the shores of Hudson Bay. (And the Hudson Bay Lowlands that just may be somewhat transformed by climate change in the 21 st century!)