MIchael Ignatieff, Olivia Chow, and Jack Layton: will they ever sign the kind of ceasefire that Michael Byers wants?

So there actually will be four Canadian federal by-elections tomorrow, Monday, November 9 – in two ridings in Quebec (Hochelaga and Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup), and one each in British Columbia (New Westminster—Coquitlam) and Nova Scotia (Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley).

It would be quite surprising if the Liberal Party of Canada won in any of these ridings, based on its performances in the same places in the 2008 general election. But there is a serious Conservative-New Democrat contest in BC, and conceivably Nova Scotia too. And if the Conservatives are going to have any Quebec traction in the next general election, they arguably ought to do well in Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup on November 9.

Meanwhile, the progressive side of the federal political spectrum has been struggling on regardless. And our deepest political thinker, L. Frank Bunting, has now revisited his earlier contemplations of the Ottawa Scene.

This time he focuses on: the recent arrival of former Chretien aide Peter Donolo as Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff’s new chief of staff ; a recent proposal from NDP activist Michael Byers for a Liberal-New Democrat “ceasefire” in the next federal general election ; and some 17-year old reflections on the fate of the British monarchy from Michael Ignatieff himself! CLICK HERE for more detail, or see the Ottawa Scene category to the right of this page.

UPDATE NOVEMBER 9, 12:30 PM ET: The headline in today’s Globe and Mail, “Tories position by-elections as test of Ignatieff,” is a sign of just how contemptuous of the intelligence of the electorate the official Con Party communicators have become. As Joan Bryden at the Canadian Press points out, “the Liberals don’t appear to be factors in any of the races. They are expected to do no better than a distant third.”

UPDATE NOVEMBER 9, 11:55 PM ET. Based on the preliminary official results at this moment, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives must be pleased with themselves, regardless of how contemptuous of the intelligence etc their communicators have become. They have won Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia handily enough – and, more strikingly, they also pretty certainly have taken the rural Quebec riding of Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du- Loup from the Bloc Québécois.

Meanwhile, the Bloc has held onto Hochelaga in the Montreal region, and it seems virtually certain that the New Democrats will hold onto New Westminster-Coquitlam in BC.  At this moment the Liberals have finished a strong enough third behind the NDP in Nova Scotia, third behind the Bloc but ahead of the NDP in rural Quebec, third behind the NDP in the Hochelaga riding of Montreal, and a distant third behind the Conservatives in BC. Again, none of these four ridings have displayed Liberal proclivities in the recent or in some cases even the quite ancient past. But that may well be cold comfort. If any federal party is showing momentum here, it is no doubt the Conservatives in rural Quebec. Will this carry over into the next federal general election, whenever that may finally prove to be? The only solid answer of course is wait and see.