Those of us who have been wondering just what exotic political toy Stephen Harper would be pulling from his now well-worn bag of inside Ottawa tricks next can stop wondering.

He has produced the device in question and – whatever it is, exactly – it has apparently worked. (So far, at any rate. There are still many miles to go before anyone can rest.)

The latest poll, from Ipsos for Global News, summarizes what seems the current consensus view of the great race as of Wednesday, July 29, 2015 : “With Writ Drop on Horizon, Two Front Running Parties Tied: Harper Conservatives (33%, +5) Close Gap on Mulcair NDP (34%, -1) as Trudeau Liberals Tumble (25%, -4).”

A broader preliminary assessment of the latest sometimes contradictory numbers might be that the Harper Conservatives have certainly bounced back from an earlier slump – but probably not to the extent reported by last Friday’s Mainstreet/Postmedia poll,  “Conservative Christmas –  in July.” (Almost side by side with “Federal NDP maintains lead” from Forum Research.)

The more or less new Éric Grenier’s Poll Tracker service on the CBC News site “combines data from all major public opinion polls into a weighted average.”  On its calculations, as of Monday, July 27, 2015, the “Conservative Party and New Democratic Party are tied for the lead with 31.6% support each.” The Liberals have 26.1%, with both the BQ and Greens at 5% each.

On Grenier’s seat projection averages, these popular vote percentages would give 130 seats to the Harper Conservatives, 122 to the Mulcair New Democrats, and 83 to the Trudeau II Liberals. (With two seats for the BQ and one for the Greens – and note that 170 seats are required for even a bare majority in the new 338-member Canadian House of Commons.)

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The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll from last Friday had little doubt about the ultimate agent of the rise in Conservative fortunes. “A new  survey finds the Conservatives with a strong lead nationally in the immediate aftermath of the new enhanced Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB) … It’s Christmas in July for Conservatives as the immediate response to UCCB cheques is overwhelmingly positive for Stephen Harper.”

Yet according to the latest poll, from Ipsos for Global News, released on Wednesday, July 29, 2015, the “poll analysis indicates the Tory rally is largely a function of declining Trudeau Liberal fortunes and the concurrent rising approval rates for the Prime Minister and his government, and not the much vaunted government Universal Child-Care Benefit program which has had minimal impact on voting behavior among families with children.”

In any case, according to CBC News, as of yesterday around dinner time, PM Harper “will call an election as early as this Sunday, kicking off what would be the longest federal election campaign in modern history … The election is generally considered to be set for Oct. 19, 2015, under the Conservatives’ fixed election law, although there is wiggle room. But Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Bloomberg News Wednesday that he considers that date to be set in stone.”

CBC News went on : “Harper is expected to go to Rideau Hall Sunday or Monday to ask Gov. Gen. David Johnston to dissolve Parliament … The Conservatives have sent out invitations to supporters for a rally in Montreal Sunday night. Harper is likely to head to Toronto after that.”

In practice, of course, an unofficial campaign has been going on for a while now – since as long ago as the May long weekend, say. I had thought the official launch (or “Writ Drop”) that CBC News is now so worked up about merely had implications for how much money could be spent by whom, when, etc. Those among my fellow editors professionally immersed in the real world of local campaigning have pointed out that we’re also talking about the period when the sign wars become legal, in each of the 338 local ridings.

In any case again, as the headlines say, even “With Writ Drop on Horizon” you can still sense the mood that Andrew Coyne so memorably captured back in the middle of June. There has still “never been an election campaign like the one on which we are now embarked,” with its “weird fin-de-siècle glow …  a sense of things coming unstuck, old certainties uprooted.” Now, as of around 10 PM EDT on Wednesday, July 29, 2015, CTV News is somewhat similarly telling us “Exclusive poll: 66 per cent of voters want change.”  What finally will happen on October 19 is getting more and more interesting. And, as of this coming Monday, it is only 11 weeks away!