RANDALL WHITE, ONTARIO TONITE, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2025. [UPDATED FEBRUARY 27 ELECTION DAY/NIGHT].Word from Washington, DC is that the Premier of the 11th Province (can’t quite remember her name — Donalda … ?) has no interest in the coming Thursday, February 27 election in what used to be Canada’s most populous province.

(And Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s latest trip to Washington, in the midst of his provincial election campaign, has not roused the Dumpster from signing overwrought executive orders in between golf games — or from adding to his bizarre attack on good neighbour Canada!)

Meanwhile, the “snap” Ontario election this coming Thursday — called by Premier Ford well in advance of the legislated “fixed date” Ontario election scheduled for June 4, 2026 — follows the 2022 election which boasted the lowest voter turnout in the province’s entire history since 1867 (not quite 44%!). And the biggest question about the February 27, 2025 election probably is whether turnout this year will be even lower than it was on June 2, 2022?.

In at least one sense the people of Ontario cannot be blamed if this is what happens. Premier Ford has managed to concoct a quite meaningless but politically clever contest in which his alleged “Progressive Conservative” party (or just “PC” as they like to say these days) is almost certain to win — with well under a majority of the province-wide popular vote!

The numbers behind Premier Ford’s very early snap election call of 2025 are essentially the same now — the weekend before the vote on February 27, 2025 — as when he called the election back on January 28, 2025. (And in effect several days before : still not very long ago, not much more than a month. And then subsequently even the weather seems to be boosting the sordid cause of the Ontario PCs, with vast snowfalls complicating everyday life in many parts of the province, and dissuading some contrary-minded citizens from voting in an election that the premier seems bound to win in any case.)

Take, eg, the 338Canada polling averages for Ontario provincial politics as of February 21,2025 . They give 45% of the popular vote to the Ford Conservatives, 28% to Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, 18% to Marit Stiles’s New Democrats, and 6% to Mike Schreiner’s Green Party. 338Canada estimates this will give the Conservatives 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (where a bare majority is 63), New Democrats 18 seats, Liberals 16, and Greens 2. (Note that as a result of their highly “inefficient” vote on this reading, Liberals actually win fewer seats than New Democrats, despite their considerably greater province-wide popular-vote percentage.)

Intriguingly enough, these results are broadly similar to the February 22, 2025 projection offered by Mainstreet Research. This gives 42.1% of the popular vote to the Conservatives, 30.9% to the Liberals, 16.9% to the New Democrats, and 6.1% to the Green Party. Mainstreet projects that this will give the Conservatives 88 seats, Liberals 19, NDP 14, and Greens 2. (And on this reading the Liberals do get more seats than the New Democrats, in line with the popular vote differences in this respect at least!)

There are two things profoundly wrong with what amounts to this “rigged” election result in Canada’s most populous province — in my personal free and democratic opinion of course.

The first is that it just perpetuates conservative minority rule in a province with an essentially progressive democratic majority. On both 338Canada and Mainstreet projections, eg, the Liberals, New Democrats, and Greens combined take a clear majority of the province-wide popular vote (52% in the case of the 338Canada reading, and 53.9% for Mainstreet). If the three parties were somehow united the cause of progress would win the election (as urged by various social media commentaries these days). Proponents of “proportional representation” reforms in our current first-past-the-post electoral system also urge that their policy proposal would fix this issue (though there has already been an unsuccessful Ontario referendum on the proposal). But for the moment it certainly remains true that progressive politicians in three parties, who insist on remaining separate from colleagues over alleged ideological nuances, are themselves the ultimate authors of their exclusion from government at Queen’s Park.

The second big problem with the widely predicted third election win of the Ford Conservatives in Canada’s most populous province, in my personal well-thought-out opinion in any case, is that Premier Ford and his cronies have provided Ontario with something that is almost the exact opposite of good government — ever since the election of 2018. If ever any democratic political leader did not deserve to win a particular election it is Doug Ford in Ontario in the absurdly early snap election of February 27, 2025 (held just before the worm finally turns against the Ontario PC s, as it should have in all good conscience long long ago?).

Now … anything is always possible in democratic politics. As many as 11% of potential Ontario voters are apparently still undecided. If they all, eg, decided to vote Liberal this coming Thursday that could dramatically challenge the Ford Conservative hegemony in an exciting way. But my own experience as an increasingly older Ontario resident suggests this is not at all too likely.

And then there’s the question of just where voter turnout will be this time anyway.

Whatever, democracy in Ontario is not working very well right now. Or so it seems to me — and perhaps the clear democratic majority of the people of Ontario, who did not vote in the provincial election of 2022, and may not vote again in 2025!

(Though on February 23 I’m also noting at least a few social media reports of lineups at early voting polls, which could suggest a very welcome increase in overall voter turnout in the end, if not much real difference in particular party fortunes? Or, again maybe … in principle anything is always possible! Democracy in Ontario is not quite dead yet … )

UPDATE FEB 27 ELECTION DAY/NIGHT 2025 : As of c.12:00 AM Feb 28, the Ford PC s are elected or leading in 80 seats (bare majority = 63 seats) with 43% of the popular vote. The NDP are elected or leading in 27 seats with 19% of the vote ; the Liberals 14 seats with 30% of the vote ; the Greens 2 seats with 5% ; and there is one Independent.

It is still too early for turnout numbers, but : “Fears of a record-low turnout election have also been raised with 36 per cent fewer votes cast at advance polls in 2025 than in 2022, which holds the title of worst election turnout in Ontario history at 44 per cent.”

Except for Liberals doing better and New Democrats somewhat worse, the 2025 results are much like 2022. This raises again the question of why the 2025 election was seriously necessary. The government still had essentially the same mandate from Ontarians who bothered to vote, and a legislative majority that would last until June 2026! (Though in 2025 see also : [Liberal leader] “Bonnie Crombie to stay on as leader after losing Mississauga seat.”)

FINALLY AN EXTRA as of February 28, 2 PM ET : “Elections Ontario reports this morning the unofficial provincial total is a 45.4 per cent voter turnout rate, or about 5 million of the almost 11.1 million people eligible to vote in Ontario weighed in for the 2025 provincial general election.” This mercifully bears some slight positive comparison with the record low 44% in 2022. The at least not exactly bad news is that 2025 turnout is actually marginally higher than the record low last time. Yet 45.4% of course remains appallingly low. Here as elsewhere in Ontario provincial politics “what is to be done” remains an urgent unanswered question, unlikely to be discussed by the all too predictable and widely congratulated victors of the snap election on February 27.