SPECIAL FROM ROB SPARROW, HIGH PARK, TORONTO. MARCH 26, 2025. Calling the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays anything less than a disaster would be generous. This was a team built to contend—at least in theory—but instead, it collapsed in historic fashion, ending with a dismal 74-88 record, finishing dead last in the AL East for the first time since 2013.

The numbers tell the story of an offensive collapse years in the making. The Blue Jays’ runs scored cratered from 846 in 2021 to 671 in 2024 – their lowest full-season total since 1997. Home runs – down from 262 in 2021 (the most in baseball) to just 156, the worst long-ball output in a full season since 2008. Batting average – down to .241, the team’s worst since the early ‘80s, when beloved broadcaster Buck Martinez was the team’s light-hitting catcher.

It didn’t help that the roster was constructed around the flawed hope that internal improvement could offset previous mistakes.

Moreover, the strategic decision over the past couple years to prioritize “run prevention” over offensive firepower—exemplified by trading away of Fan Favourites and Home Run Jacket founding members Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.—has backfired badly.

A) Last Place Finish…Rotten to the Core…

In one sense, the 2024 season was a referendum on the Mark Shapiro-Ross Atkins front office, now entering its 10th year. When they took over in 2016, they inherited an aging but playoff-calibre roster. The teardown that followed was supposed to lay the foundation for a sustainable winner. Sure, the Jays endured bad years in 2018 and 2019, but those were expected rebuilding seasons. The unexpected playoff appearance in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, and the near miss by a game in the 2021 season, raised expectations that the 2020s decade of Blue Jay baseball held much promise.

Instead, both the 2022 and 2023 seasons concluded in two game wild card sweeps, ending with both a thump and a whimper. The thump being the collapse against the Mariners in ‘22 when they led 8-1 in Game 2, and the whimper being their loss to the Twins in ’23, headlined by their aggressive move to lift José Berríos early, and being held to just one run over the two-game series.

The 2024 last place season proved that any vision the Blue Jay front office had was failed and that management has no clear answers. At the season-ending press conference, Shapiro and Atkins took responsibility for the debacle – sort of. They acknowledged the failures, “I can’t think of a bigger disconnect from expectations in the time that I’ve been here”, said Shapiro. But he framed them as a blip rather than a long-term indictment, “The expectations going into the season were not anecdotal and gut-based expectations, they’re based on some real information and track records of players. To have that underperform so resoundingly collectively as a group is extremely tough to accept and to swallow.”

Except this wasn’t a blip in the “analytical process”. It was the culmination of years of miscalculations, of failing to replace lost production, of undervaluing power hitting in a league that increasingly revolves around it. As the 2024 offseason began, the Jays found themselves at a crossroads for 2025, they could try to patch the holes and run it back one more time with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette and the rest of the group, or they can admit this core has peaked and start fresh.

One thing is clear: The status quo isn’t working.

B) Swing and Miss Offseason…Part Deux…

For the second straight offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays swung for the fences in free agency – only to strike out spectacularly once again.

Last winter, it was Shohei Ohtani. The Blue Jays were deep in the mix, holding meetings with the two-way superstar at their Dunedin complex. There were even reports that he left the facility wearing Jays gear, fuelling speculation that Toronto had a real shot. This heightened days later to a fever pitch when flight trackers had him on a plane to Toronto. Alas, he was not on that plane, and before you knew it, Ohtani had signed a record-shattering $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, leaving the Jays empty-handed and without a legitimate backup plan, resulting in the miserable 2024 campaign.

It was a gut punch. And instead of learning from it, the front office doubled-down and repeated the exact same mistake this past offseason. The target this time? Juan Soto.

Once again, reports surfaced that Toronto was making an aggressive push to Soto, offering upwards of $700 million for the outfielder. But just like with Ohtani, Soto went elsewhere— this time to the New York Mets, who locked him up with a staggering 15-year, $765 million contract.

And just like last year, the fallout was brutal. “Why would you go to Toronto right now if you’re a free agent?” a rival executive rhetorically asked. “It’s amazing how far this team has fallen from the top in such a short time.” No team has had as many near misses on as many elite players as the Blue Jays in recent years. The Blue Jays aren’t just missing out on big-name free agents—they’re becoming a pawn and an afterthought in these negotiations. They’re a club that’s high on excuses instead of delivering results — there are no silver or bronze medals in free agency — you either get the player or you don’t.

The Jays’ failure to secure their own Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term extension hasn’t helped. With one prominent agent stating, “Why would you go there, especially if the team hasn’t signed (Vladdy) to a long-term deal? If you don’t sign him, you can just close Toronto off.” Elite free agents want to know they’re signing with a stable, competitive organization. Right now, Toronto doesn’t look like one.

And then came the Roki Sasaki debacle. Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese phenom, was seen as a potential ace—a long-term, top-of-the-rotation arm who could transform a pitching staff overnight. Toronto aggressively pursued him, going so far as to trade for $2 million in international bonus pool money from the Cleveland Guardians to increase their offer. But there was a catch. To get that bonus pool money, the Blue Jays had to take on $11.8 million in future salary commitments from Cleveland in the form of Myles Straw, a light-hitting outfielder the Guardians had been desperate to offload.

And then, in a case of déjà vu, just hours later Sasaki signed with the Dodgers. This wasn’t just a loss. This was an embarrassment. This was front-office incompetence that extends far beyond not being able to land a big-name free agent. It was a complete disaster—a move that reeked of desperation and poor planning, especially as the rival suitors Padres and Dodgers had similar international pool money deals in place that were contingent with Sasaki signing with them. Even rival executives were baffled, “My phone has been blowing up all day with ‘WTF Jays,’” one executive said. Another simply called it “a masterclass” by Cleveland, “who successfully dumped an unwanted contract on Toronto without losing anything of real value.”

With Ohtani, Soto, and Sasaki all rejecting Toronto, fans are starting to see the pattern. The Jays are great at being “in” on top-tier free agents, but they rarely close the deal. Instead, they’re being used to drive up the price for the teams that ultimately land these stars. Safe to say fans (and, let’s face it, several veteran players in the Jays clubhouse) have long grown weary of the front office firing duds while big-game hunting.

Management then pivoted, trying to salvage the offseason with a few mid-tier free-agent signings that all have questions attached. They brought in Anthony Santander for $92.5 millon over five years, coming off his career best year and hoping his 44-home-run power translates, yet having to overpay in terms of years committed to the veteran outfielder – the question is whether they will regret the deal in Year 2-3 or in Year 4-5 of the contract. They signed Max Scherzer to a one year $15.5 million contract, betting that the soon-to-be 41-year-old has enough left in the tank after an injury-plagued season which he made just nine starts. Finally, they added reliever Jeff Hoffman on a three-year deal worth $33 million, despite two other teams backing out of deals with him due to medical concerns. The Jays hoping that he seamlessly transitions from set-up man to closer, a role he has never held on a big-league team. Yet none of these moves change the big picture. This off-season has been dispiriting for the Jays in a lot of ways, but one in particular: They’ve gone from being one of baseball’s cool kids to one of its burnouts.

For the second straight year, the Blue Jays chased superstars, got their hopes up, and got left at the altar…twice this time. For the second straight year, they were forced to pivot to underwhelming alternatives. And for the second straight year, they entered the season with more questions than answers…the biggest question centred around the future of their All-Star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr…

C) Mishandling of Vladdy…

Since his arrival as a teenager in the spring of 2019, the Toronto Blue Jays had every opportunity to secure Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the long-term face of the franchise. Instead, they chose to manipulate his service time, took him to salary arbitration, dragged their feet, made him a number of extension offers he deemed insufficient, misread the market, and now face the very real possibility of losing him for nothing.

The Blue Jays handling of Vladdy might best be summarized by Roman philosopher Cicero’s mantra: More is lost by indecision than wrong decision. Step by step, the Jays have put themselves in a terrible position, with now the player holding all of the leverage.

Case in point, two years ago, the Jays could have locked up Guerrero Jr. with a deal similar to the 10-year, $313.5 million contract Rafael Devers signed with the Boston Red Sox. Sure, there was some risk at the time – Vladdy after a stellar 2021 was coming off a slight downturn in 2022-23 – but that’s the gamble good organizations take. Then Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos did it in 2011, when he signed José Bautista to a long-term extension after just one breakout season. That bet turned into one of the biggest steals in Blue Jays history, as José was the cornerstone of the team’s resurgence in the mid-2010s.

Shapiro and Atkins, however, chose to wait. And now the market has moved. As one industry insider stated, “The cost of inaction has effectively doubled Vladdy’s price.” It’s a staggering blunder. Instead of securing Guerrero Jr. early, they let Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets redefine the market. Vladdy isn’t necessarily on Soto’s level, but he’s only five months older and has a similar career .284/.356/.507 slash line with an MVP-calibre 2021 season under his belt. He won’t be taking a discount.

Also, it has raised questions about how the analytically-driven front office values Vladdy. In an end of season press conference when asked about Guerrero Jr., Shapiro’s comments were bafflingly indifferent, “Generational player? Like, what’s your definition?” That’s not how you talk about a franchise cornerstone. That’s how you talk about a player you’re preparing to let walk.

Asked if he felt the negotiations were “close,” Atkins chose not to share any specifics of the talks that hit a wall ahead of a Spring Training deadline set by the all-star first baseman. “It just depends on how you define close, that’s too big of a word to talk specifically about,” he said. “I’m not comfortable talking about numbers.” Vladdy though was much more direct, when asked if they were close, he responded with a firm “No”, elaborating through an interpreter, “They had their numbers; I had my numbers”.

According to the New York Post, the team’s last offer before Guerrero’s spring training deadline, was around $500 million with significant deferrals that would have reduced the present value to between $400 million and $450 million. Guerrero Jr. told media outlets he was “looking for 14-year, $500 million deal”. The difference in present value between his ask and the Blue Jays’ final proposal, is between $50 million and $100 million — or between $3.57 million and $7.14 million per season over 14 years. Yet those numbers seem above and beyond what the Blue Jays are willing to go, “We have gone well past what our rational point of objectively framing what the contract value is,” Shapiro told the Toronto Sun.

The failure to get an extension done before Spring Training has also sucked a little bit of the energy out of the clubhouse. The team enters the season with a cloud hanging over them, knowing that management was either unwilling or unable to commit to its biggest star. Said one team insider, “It’s unfortunate. Vladdy’s everything you want in a player: He’s home-grown Canadian. He wants to play his whole career in Toronto. He’s wonderfully open to the fans. He has a great personality and he’s an excellent player.” It should be a no-brainer, in this time of Tariff tensions and “Buy Canadian”, if ever there was a time for the only Canadian MLB team to commit to what may be the best Canadian born player of all-time, this would be it. He’s a superstar who is not only beloved by the fan base, but who wants to be in Toronto just as badly as the fans want him there. It’s the type of relationship Blue Jays fans have always wanted with a player.

Yet at this point, the writing is on the wall. As Guerrero Jr. enters the season without an extension, the Jays will have no future leverage in negotiations and look to be in a lose-lose situation. He’ll either get dealt at the trade deadline (a PR disaster), or compete with the other 29 clubs with the potential to see him walk in free agency (an even bigger disaster). And what would that signal to fans? This was supposed to be the Blue Jays’ golden era, built around Vladdy and Bo Bichette. Instead, it’s looking more like a wasted decade of what could have been.

D) Where Have You Gone, Mr. Rogers?

For all the justified anger at Shapiro and Atkins, the real issue with the Blue Jays may run higher up the food chain – to the eponymous heir to the structure formally known as the Skydome.

Over the past offseason, Rogers Communications Inc. consolidated its Toronto sports holdings, reaching an agreement to buy Bell’s 37.5% stake in MLSE (Toronto Maple Leafs, Raptors, Toronto FC, Argonauts) for $4.7 billion, making them the de facto power brokers in Toronto sports. When Rogers existing ownership of the MLB’s Blue Jays is factored in, the Canadian telecom giant has become one of the largest sports holding company in the world, and the only one with franchises in the NHL, NBA, MLB and MLS. And yet, when it comes to the baseball team, Edward Rogers, the Toronto sports Czar and the most powerful man in the history of Canadian sport, has been nowhere to be found.

Edward Rogers has deferred to his corporate lieutenants, and has been buying what Mark Shapiro has been selling – hook, line and sinker – ever since he brought him in to replace Paul Beeston a decade ago. Shapiro speaks Rogers’ language, some form of “Corporate speak” that talks to “process and analytically driven outcomes”, something not native to Messrs Beeston or Anthopoulos. Yet this is going to be Shapiro’s 25th year in senior roles in Major League Baseball. He talks a better game than he plays. Yet unlike Beeston or Anthopoulos he knows the World Series the way we do — from watching on television.

There’s no question Shapiro has made Rogers money with the renovations to the stadium, creating a number of social spaces offering “fan experience” along with a variety of unique food and drink options. A new set of fans have in turn flocked in droves to these novel social meeting place…some resident baseball observers more interested in the musical entertainment and frozen margaritas than the product on the baseball diamond.

Yet the results on the field? A decade of mediocrity. They’ve produced three Wild Card appearances and zero playoff wins. They’ve burned through a generational core without delivering any real October success. A fan base that’s been sold a vision of year after year of sustainable contention – wave after wave of new prospects – only to watch the team get worse, plummeting to last place in ‘24. And yet, no ownership intervention seems imminent.

Fans are growing restless. The Jays have poured money into stadium renovations and spent big on players pushing their payroll to a club record $260 million (5th in MLB), but they haven’t gotten much bang for the buck or made the bold moves needed to keep up with the MLB elite. Edward Rogers failure to demand accountability has left Shapiro and Atkins unchecked. At the very least, Rogers needs to make a decision: Either commit to Guerrero Jr. and Bichette with long-term extensions or clean house in the front office. This middle ground—where the Blue Jays neither rebuild nor truly contend—isn’t working.

Toronto fans aren’t stupid. They’ve seen this story before. The Leafs, the Raptors, even the Argos—they’ve all gone through stretches of ownership-driven dysfunction. The Jays are just the latest example, and fan disenchantment for the team’s front office is at an all-time high, with no one really believing that the team can win with Shapiro and Atkins in charge.

Decision will have to be made soon both with players and executives. Shapiro is signed through 2025, Atkins through ’26, and unless the pseudo-owner in the Rogers Tower finally intervenes, this era of Blue Jays baseball is at serious risk of fading into irrelevance.

E) Enjoy It While They’re Here… Bold Predictions & Scenarios for 2025…

So, where does all this leave the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays? The range of outcomes for the 2025 Jays is as wide as any club in baseball.

On paper, this could still be a decent team. They’ve added some power in Anthony Santander to slot behind Bo and Vladdy in the lineup. They’ve upgraded their defence with the trade for perennial gold-glove infielder Andres Gimenez. They signed Max Scherzer, who—if healthy—could be a valuable rotation piece. Overall, they have enough talent to hang around the division race, as each of the Yankees, Orioles and Rays have suffered major injuries in spring which should tighten up the division.

In fact, the two main baseball prognostication websites Fangraphs / Baseball Prospectus have them winning between 83-86 games with a about a 44-53% chance to make the playoffs.  Running it through Cluster Luck Pythagorean Model (which over the Shapiro/Atkins years has predicted correctly all but the 2020 COVID short season), it concurs and we do see an improvement expectation on the horizon from their 74 wins a year ago…

Year	Hits	Runs	Hits Against	Runs Against	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	Cluster Luck Difference	Next Year Expectation	Next Year Actual	Result
2016	1358	759	1340	666	86.3	89	-2.7	LESS	76	CORRECT
2017	1320	693	1460	784	72.7	76	-3.3	LESS	73	CORRECT
2018	1336	709	1476	832	71.4	73	-1.6	LESS	67	CORRECT
2019	1299	726	1450	828	71.3	67	-4.3	LESS	32	CORRECT
2020	516	302	517	312	29.5	32	-2.5	LESS	91	INCORRECT
2021	1455	846	1257	663	98.7	91	7.7	MORE	92	CORRECT
2022	1464	775	1356	679	90.7	92	-1.3	LESS	89	CORRECT
2023	1423	746	1326	671	88.6	89	-0.4	LESS	74	CORRECT
2024	1303	671	1316	743	76.9	74	2.9	MORE

On a more qualitative slant that reflects fan sentiment, the New York Times conducted its annual MLB Hope-O-Meter poll, asking readers a straightforward question: “Are you optimistic about your favourite MLB team in 2025?” The response from Blue Jays fans was bleak—just 18.3% expressed optimism, ranking Toronto 25th in the league. This marks a staggering decline from the highs of 2022 and 2023, when optimism levels soared at 99.1% and 97.3%, respectively.

For those optimists, here then are some best-case scenario for 2025:

· Vlad & Bo Extend – The Jays finally lock up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with long-term deals, stabilizing the franchise for the rest of the decade.

· Lineup Rebounds – Bo Bichette, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho all bounce back offensively, giving the Jays a more balanced and dangerous attack.

· Santander Stays Hot – Anthony Santander’s power surge from 2024 continues, and he becomes a true middle-of-the-order threat and the Jays resemble the power laden clubs of 2021/22.

· Rookies Make an Impact – Alan Roden, Will Wagner and Orelvis Martinez break through at some point of the season and become everyday contributors.

· AL East Chaos – The Yankees, Orioles, and Rays take a step back, leaving the division more wide open than expected.

· Playoff Breakthrough – The Jays sneak into the postseason and finally win a game, breaking their nearly decade-long drought and make a run in the playoffs.

That’s the dream. But the nightmare scenario is just as plausible:

· Vlad & Bo Walk – The team stumbles early out of the gate leading to a potential mid-season trade deadline sell-off, or they decide to keep both throughout the season and Guerrero Jr. and Bichette enter free agency with no extensions in place.

· Contract Drama Becomes a Distraction – The looming free agency of the team’s stars dominates the season narrative in every city they travel to and it affects clubhouse morale.

· Springer, Bassitt, Gausman & Scherzer Decline Sharply – Aging veterans struggle with not much left in the tank, leaving the team with dead weight on big contracts.

· Hoffman Flops as Closer – Jeff Hoffman proves unreliable in his new role as ninth-inning closer, creating bullpen instability similar to last year.

· Fan Apathy Sets In – After years of frustration, attendance and TV ratings drop, signalling a loss of faith in the team, management and ownership.

· Another Wasted Year – The team finishes fourth or fifth in the AL East, fails to make meaningful progress, and heads into 2026 with no clear direction.

This was supposed to be the Third glorious Blue Jays epoch: Back-to-back World Series in 1992-93 after years of coming oh so close. The swaggering, bat-flipping, Renaissance Jays of 2015 and 2016… and then this golden era of Vladdy and Bo. This was supposed to be an era of Blue Jays “next level” excellence, but it’s given way to a series of missed chances, each more frustrating than the last. In many ways, 2025 feels like the last ride for this group. If the team underperforms again and Guerrero Jr. and Bichette don’t re-sign, this will be the final season of the dynamic duo.

So Blue Jays fans: Enjoy it while they’re here. Enjoy Guerrero Jr. launching opposite-field homers, dawning the Home-Run Jacket with his joyous wide smile. Enjoy Bichette driving the ball into the right-center field gap and making improbable plays up the middle at shortstop. Take it all in on a sunny day over a slushy margarita on the Corona Rooftop patio…because by this time next year, the Blue Jays could look very, very different.

Rob Sparrow is a Toronto marketing analyst and noted local authority on the sporting life