COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS. GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. , MONDAY, APRIL 21, 2025. The 2025 Canadian federal election, which may or may not be “the most important election of our lives, ” will take place exactly one week from today.

It says a lot about how short, sweet, and sometimes more or less elevated a campaign it has been over the past few weeks that this is the first time we counterweights editors have pulled ourselves together for some group comment.

We start with the French and then English TV debates — Wednesday 16 April and Thursday 17 April this past week. The Canadian Press report on the second English debate is headlined : “’You, sir, are not a change’: Party leaders target Carney in final election debate.”

To all of us the trouble with Poilievre’s rhetoric that “You, sir, are not a change” is that Mark Carney in some apparently crucial sense is for many a welcome change from Justin Trudeau.

And insofar as there are some Trudeau Liberal cabinet carry-overs, that is, as Carney himself urged in the English debate, a good thing. It seasons the fresh new faces with hard-earned experience and outstanding talent.

Or as Globe and Mail columnist Lawrence Martin tweeted/X-posted after the English contest : “Carney’s best debate moment. ‘I know it may be difficult, Mr. Poilievre, you spent years running against Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax. They’re both gone, okay? They’re both gone.’”

(1) “This is what democracy looks like … when the debate is over”

Some of us around the boardroom table here (and on the office TV room sofas for the evenings of April 16 and 17) were slightly impressed that both debates were broadcast from Montreal on the St. Lawrence River.

It seemed to fit the possibly historic 2025 election that the TV debates came from the ancient metropolis of the east-west multicultural Fur Trade in Canada. (Which was brought to its historic peak by the North West Company [1779–1821], forerunner of the 1867 confederation that still endures, having acquired a Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms in 1982.)

Here at counterweights.ca we have at least agreed that our own most fundamental feelings about the debates were largely captured in a tweet/post by the Quebec Liberal activist and sometime Justin Trudeau advisor Jonathan Kalles.

The Tweet/Xpost was placed over a video of contestants shaking hands, being polite, and even somewhat friendly at the end of the English encounter : “This is what democracy looks like. This is what’s supposed to happen when the debate is over. This is what makes Canada great.”

Even if all this doesn’t quite make Canada great in the most real world, it at least induces a more settled and agreeable public life (if also more modest of course), especially than what now prevails under Donald Trump’s second disastrous administration of the USA, USA today.

We apparently agree as well that Pierre Poilievre did present an almost respectable future prime minister in the English debate in particular. Under attack as current frontrunner, however, Carney also did as well defending himself as he had to, or even somewhat better. And this seems clearly enough reflected in the opinion polls immediately after the two debates. At the same time, some pundits were nonetheless saying that Liberals should still be suitably worried. And it seems that we all cautiously agree with this too.

(2) 6 of 7 polls added today had Mark Carney’s Liberals ahead by from 5 to 8 points

Meanwhile, at the less Liberal-worrying end of the 2025 election odyssey, at 4:38 PM, April 21, 2025, Philippe J. Fournier@338Canada posted his latest Update of “Federal polls added today” on his 338Canada poll aggregation site.

Six of seven polls added — from Angus Reid, Liaison, MQO, Nanos, Pollara, and Research Co. — had Mark Carney’s Liberals ahead, by from 5 to 8 points. One poll, from Mainstreet Research, had Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives tied.

Mainstreet has also brought out earlier polls quite recently that had the Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals. At the same time, Mainstreet has a somewhat controversial history of mis-predicting conservative or right-wing victories in two elections won by the so-called liberal left — the 2017 Calgary mayoral contest, and a 2019 provincial by-election in BC.

Mainstreet has been closer to the mark in full-scale federal and provincial elections since 2019. According to Wikipedia : “In a comparison of polling results with election results, Mainstreet was ranked fourth in Canada by polling analyst Philippe J. Fournier.”

In any event there will be more to come on election night… and possibly before … with absolutely no doubt.

Meanwhile again, for all of us here the recent rather sudden rise of Mark Carney in Canadian federal politics has been like manna falling from heaven … And we’re certainly hoping that the 6 out of 7 polls added today finally prove right on the money …