RANDALL WHITE, ONTARIO TONITE, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2024. Before setting all such things aside for extended New Year’s celebrations, I had just wanted to say a few quick words about recent statistics that suggest “Canadians sense of pride plummets to lowest level in decades.”

(And this was happening for some time before the latest insults of the second US president elect, who as one of his several secret talents probably does almost viscerally sense such things, like blood in the water).

The statistics involved have been tidily summarized in a recent blogTO piece, which concluded with “What are your thoughts on the decline in Canadian pride?

But … suddenly … yesterday Canadian federal politics was almost overwhelmed by the altogether unexpected resignation of finance minister (and deputy PM) Chrystia Freeland, on the very day she was to have introduced the 2024 Fall Economic Statement in the House.

(1) Resignation of Justin Trudeau ????

I certainly agree that this Monday, Monday’s events raise the question of PM Justin Trudeau’s future in a very immediate way.

Note, eg, these headlines from the CBC News website : “Trudeau’s government in crisis” ; “Freeland — the minister with the mile-wide mandate — leaves a massive hole in cabinet” ; “Trudeau faces frustrated MPs after Freeland’s shock resignation” ; “Trudeau government in turmoil after Freeland resignation” ; “Freeland’s unexpected departure sparks reactions from all sides” ; “Freeland’s departure an indictment of Trudeau’s treatment of women, former MP says.”

And then the CTV News headlines just carried on with the story : “Trudeau considering his options as leader after Freeland quits cabinet, sources say” ; “’We’re not united’: Liberal caucus meets, as PM Trudeau faces fresh calls to resign in light of Freeland’s departure” ; “’Eventful day,’ Trudeau says after Chrystia Freeland quits cabinet, LeBlanc tapped to replace her” ; “Feds deliver fall economic statement with $61.9B deficit for 2023-24, amid political turmoil” ; “Ford says premiers must stand united against Trump tariff threat amid ‘uncertain’ times in Ottawa” ; “Is Chrystia Freeland readying a Liberal leadership bid?”

All this has done at least two things for my own immediate view of Canadian federal politics. First, I think it’s much less likely that the Trudeau Liberal minority government will now make it all the way to the October 2025 fixed-date election. We could be voting much earlier in the new year. Second, I also now think there’s a considerably greater chance that Justin Trudeau will not be leading the Liberals in the next election, whenever it comes. (And, somewhat ironically, if a new federal Liberal leader must be chosen, logistically that just might bring the next election closer to October 2025 as well.

(2) The plummeting Canadian pride statistics

Meanwhile, here is a quick introduction to the statistics of declining Canadian pride, as recently laid out by blogTO :

“In a 1991 survey, 65 per cent of Canadians said they had a deep emotional attachment to Canada and loved what the country stood for; in 2016, 62 per cent of respondents felt the same way … However, in 2024, only 49 per cent of Canadians shared those feelings.”

Similarly : “In 1985, over three-quarters (78 per cent) of people surveyed by polling company Environics said they felt ‘very proud’ to be Canadian; in 2016, that dropped to 52 per cent … In 2024, that feeling of pride has slumped even lower, as only 34 per cent of respondents said they felt ‘very proud’ to be Canadian.”

The one altogether serious regional difference in these numbers across the country is between Quebec and the rest of Canada. Simply put, les Québécois have for a while now taken somewhat less pride in being Canadian than residents of other provinces. And most recently they are taking still less less-pride than before — just like Canadians everywhere else!

As for my own thoughts right now I’d put myself with the 49% of Canadians who still have some “deep emotional attachment to Canada” and love “what the country” stands for — and even with the 34% who still “feel very proud” to be Canadian.

(Allowing that not quite taking such concepts as national pride too seriously — as opposed to George Orwell’s kinder and gentler “patriotism” — is also part of the ”free and democratic society” that Canada does stand for today, even constitutionally.)

(3) Historical growth of Canadian population as % of US population — from 7.1% in 1900/1901 to 12.3% today !!!!

I will conclude for the moment with a final set of historical statistics — that use the longer term past to cast some poignant light on what does seem to me the most likely longer term future. As background note that the decennial US census counts population in the “n0” year at the start of each decade ; Canada counts in the year “n1” (following the practice in the UK).

In the respective census years 1900/1901 Canada’s population stood at 7.1% of the US population. By1930/31 this number had risen to 8.3% ; by 1960/61 to 10.2% ; by 1990/91 to 11.0% ; by 2020/2021 to 11.2% ; and by 2024 (after a very remarkable if also hopefully unusual year of Canadian population growth) to 12.3%.

Canada will no doubt never have at all as many people as the Friendly Giant (aka Ugly American) next door. But for the past century and a quarter the Canadian percentage of the American population has been increasing. And that has real-world implications for the future of the country too, regardless of what the MAGA Republicans next door may or may not finally do.

At the same time, according to all the opinion polls without exception, a Conservative political party with a still dubious leader is poised to take over the Canadian federal government at some point in the new year ahead. And is the immediate conclusion here just that Canada really is a lot more like the USA than it sometimes likes to admit????