RANDALL WHITE, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO . TUESDAY, MARCH 12, 2024. Individual polls vary on exact numbers. But by almost the middle of March 2024 all polls have been saying for some time that it is very hard to see how the Justin Trudeau Liberals could “win” a fourth Canadian federal election in a row, in […]
Sunday, February 26, 2010, at the edge of a great lake in the northern North American wilderness. Waiting for Oscar, looking in on the NDP federal leadership debate in Winnipeg (thank you CPAC) … and, despite my better judgment, finally starting to wonder about the May 2, 2011 robocalls election scandal (or whatever it is) […]
[UPDATED FOR SOME FINAL POLLS, MAY 1, AND FINAL RESULT MAY 3]. With just one day to go (and not quite that right now, to be very exact), Eric Grenier at ThreeHundredEight.com says “all indications are Stephen Harper’s Conservatives will likely win their third consecutive election Monday night. But whether the next government will be […]
[UPDATED MAY 1]. Two additional bits of polling data are now offering some degree of support for the dramatic scenario of change in Canadian federal politics this coming Monday, May 2 posed by the April 25 EKOS poll. (In case you’ve forgotten: Conservatives 33.7%, New Democrats 28.0%, Liberals 23.7%, Greens 7.2%, Bloc Quebecois 6.2%, and […]
[UPDATED MAY 1]. Monday, April 25, 2011 was a strange day in the history of the Canadian federal election campaign that will end with the actual vote one week hence, on Monday, May 2. The day began, like almost every other in this campaign (there was a time out for Good Friday) with the results […]
[UPDATED MAY 1]. I started out earlier today writing about how “surfing the Globe and Mail website for federal election news this day before Good Friday on the Christian calendar can make your head hurt.” After a bit of sweat on my top articles for April 20—21, it became clear that four new opinion polls […]
The Canadian federal election of 2011 started with a lot of wild talk about reckless coalitions. And with a mere 11 days to go now, it’s starting to seem as if that’s how it may end too. It may or may not be a good sign that the imagery has developed somewhat over the past […]
Exactly one week ago I quoted the excellent Douglas Bell’s critical view of the 2011 Canadian federal election campaign: “my guess is that by the end of next week, the numbers will have changed dramatically.” It is now clear that, for the most part, this guess has proved plain wrong. There are a few straws […]
Now that both the English and French TV leaders’ debates are over, some two and a half weeks remain in the 2011 Canadian federal election campaign. And according to Chantal Hébert in the Toronto Star: “Debates keep Harper on road to majority.” At the same time, a Postmedia News report in the Vancouver Sun offers […]
The first great TV leaders’s debate is over. The second, tonight, is in French, and will have even fewer attentive viewers. And at this juncture, by almost all the conventional measures, it would seem that a Harper Conservative majority of seats in the Parliament at Ottawa is closer than ever. (See, eg: “Harper stays his […]
